October 2, 2022

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Russia warns that “it will be a hard winter for the Europeans”. Putin could cut off the gas to force Ukraine to make peace

Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting that skyrocketing energy prices and possible shortages this winter will convince Europe to force Ukraine into a truce.

Thus, the peace would be concluded under the conditions imposed by Russia, according to an analysis published by Reuters on Wednesday, cited by Agerpres.

That is the only path to peace that Moscow sees, two Russian sources familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking said, as authorities in Kyiv say they will not negotiate until Russia leaves all of Ukraine.

“Some European leaders may think twice before continuing to support Ukraine”

“We have time, we can wait,” said a source close to the Russian authorities, who declined to be identified because she is not authorized to speak to the media. “It will be a hard winter for the Europeans. We could see protests, riots. Some European leaders may think twice before continuing to support Ukraine and believe that the time for an agreement has arrived,” added the quoted source.

A second source close to the Kremlin said that Moscow feels that it can already detect cracks in European unity and that this process is expected to accelerate amid the hardships of the winter.

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Russia Ukraine war

“It will be really hard if (the war) drags on into autumn and winter. So there is hope that they (Ukrainians) will ask for peace”, said the cited source.

But Russia has denied that it would use energy as a political weapon, and Ukraine and its staunchest Western backers have said they have no intention of giving in, and US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they had not yet noticed that support for Ukraine would shrink.

Ursula von der Leyen, on the national day of Ukraine

In a post on Twitter on the occasion of the National Day of Ukraine, celebrated on Wednesday, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote: “The EU has been with you in this fight from the very beginning. And we will be with you as long as needed”.

Backed by billions of US dollars and other aid and military training and intelligence sharing from the West, and with a series of attacks on key targets that have helped boost morale, Kiev believes it has a chance to turn things around. in the operating theatre.

“For negotiations with Russia to become possible, it is necessary to change the status quo on the front in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is necessary for the Russian army to suffer significant tactical defeats,” presidential adviser Mihailo Podoliak told Reuters.

Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian attempts to capture the capital Kyiv and the country’s second city, Kharkiv; they regularly destroyed and disrupted Russian supply lines, sank Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and caused major damage to a Russian air base in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.

For some time, Kiev has also been talking about a major counter-offensive to recapture the south, although Russia did not stand idly by and joined forces in this Ukrainian region, and therefore it is unclear if and when Ukrainian intentions will materialize.

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