Romania’s GDP increased, but less than initial estimates. The latest official figures

Gross Domestic Product grew less than economists had expected, compared to the same period last year. The indicator registered an increase of 5.1% on the raw series and 5.0% on the seasonally adjusted series.

Provisional data showed economic growth of 5.3% in the second quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2021.

In the first semester of 2022, the Gross Domestic Product increased, compared to the first semester of 2021, by 5.7%, both on the gross series and on the seasonally adjusted series.

According to the INS, the Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted data, estimated for the second quarter of 2022 was 357.212 billion lei at current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 1.8% compared to the first quarter of 2022 and by 5.0% compared to of the second quarter of 2021. The estimated Gross Domestic Product for the first semester of 2022 was 701.965 billion lei at current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 5.7% compared to the first semester of 2021, according to Agerpres.

On a gross basis, the estimated GDP for the second quarter of 2022 was 336.029 billion lei current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 5.1% compared to the second quarter of 2021. The estimated GDP for the first semester of 2022 was 609.859 billion lei lei current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 5.7% compared to the first semester of 2021.

“Compared to the provisional version (1), in the second quarter of 2022, the GDP dynamics decreased by -0.2 percentage points (from 105.3% to 105.1%) and the gross added value by -0.5 percentage points ( from 105.6% to 105.1%); the volume of net taxes per product increased by 1.7 percentage points. The volume of gross added value by activity branches registered more important changes in: construction (+1.9 percentage points ); wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants (-2.8 percentage points)”, mentions INS.

By categories of uses, more important changes in the contribution to the GDP decrease, between the two estimates, recorded the effective individual final consumption of the population’s households, from +4.6% to +5.6%, the net export of goods and services, from -7.2% to +0.5% as a result of the revision of the data source and the variation of stocks from 7.3% to -0.5%.

INS data, compared to Eurostat data

“The seasonally adjusted series of the quarterly Gross Domestic Product for the previous periods has changed compared to the provisional version (1), published in Press Release no. 217 of September 7, 2022, as a result of the revision of the data for the period 2010-2020 and the revision of the estimates for the second quarter of 2022. The Gross Domestic Product was revised for the period 2010-2019 to ensure the implementation of some reserves, formulated by Eurostat following the verification cycle of Gross National Income, regarding the following aspects: the inclusion of changes related to the revision of the ‘Public Administration’ sector; revision of the calculations regarding the consumption of fixed capital using the Continuous Inventory Method; the implementation of specific aspects: improving the estimation of research and development indicators; improving the estimates regarding production and intermediate consumption of forestry; improving exhaustiveness estimates – unobserved economy; the estimation of per diems according to Eurostat recommendations”, mentions INS.

According to the press release, the revision of the quarterly data for 2020 was carried out as a result of the need to ensure consistency between the annual and quarterly data, in the context of the revision of the data for 2020 from the semi-final version to the final version.